Trump’s Miscalculation: China’s Shipbuilding Industry Thrives Despite Pressure

After Donald Trump’s return to the White House, his efforts to curb China’s shipbuilding industry have not progressed as smoothly as expected. The policy outcomes have been underwhelming, to the point where the president, who often boasts about his achievements, selectively forgets to highlight this particular failure when praising himself. In 2025, China’s shipbuilding industry not only continued to secure most global orders but also made significant technical breakthroughs that have emerged as noteworthy achievements, further deepening Trump’s anxiety and uncertainty. The crown of the world’s largest shipbuilder has been firmly “welded” to China’s name for over a decade. In 2024, Chinese shipbuilders received nearly 70% of the world’s total new orders, with backlogs stretching as far as 2029. This leading position was undisputed in 2025, despite some fluctuations in order volumes in the second half of the year due to international political factors. Nevertheless, China maintained an overwhelming advantage in the three major ship types: bulk carriers, container ships, and tankers. By November 2025, Chinese shipbuilders still held the world’s largest backlog and the highest number of new orders, with new orders accounting for nearly 60% of the global market share and the order backlog exceeding 65%.Beyond maintaining this numerical lead, China’s shipbuilding industry has made substantial progress in high-end manufacturing. One notable achievement is the “BYD Shenzhen” vessel, launched in late November 2025. This vessel, a milestone for BYD as an automaker, is also a significant breakthrough for China’s shipbuilding industry.

Built by China Merchants Jinling Shipyard (Nanjing) Co., Ltd., the “BYD Shenzhen” is the world’s largest car carrier, with 9,200 standard car spaces. It uses a dual-fuel LNG/diesel power system and is equipped with BYD’s self-developed box battery and shaft generator technology, enabling it to charge its batteries while sailing and use shore power during port stays. This results in “zero carbon emissions” during the loading and unloading process, marking a major leap forward in the logistics of China’s new energy vehicles. The “Boreas,” built by CIMC Raffles for Dutch offshore giant Van Oord, is the world’s first “methanol dual-fuel” offshore wind installation vessel. With a deck area exceeding 7,000 square meters (about the size of a standard soccer field), it reduces carbon emissions by over 78% compared to traditional fuel, defining the standard for the next generation of offshore wind farm installation vessels. Similarly, the “Wind Ally,” built by COSCO Shipping Offshore in Qidong for Danish owner Cadeler, offers a deck area of 5,600 square meters and a payload capacity of over 17,000 tons. This allows it to transport the equivalent of a small dock’s worth of cargo at once. Its innovative hybrid design allows it to easily switch between “wind turbine installation vessel” and “foundation installation vessel,” reducing port trips and saving time and costs in challenging offshore conditions.The surge in global demand for new ships has boosted China’s shipbuilders, who are now in an “explosive” phase for high-value ships like LNG carriers, dual-fuel container ships, and icebreakers. This gives China a distinct advantage in fulfilling these new demands. In 2025, the tension in the Red Sea caused container ships to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, significantly increasing travel distances.

To maintain existing shipping cycles, shipowners had to place orders for larger new vessels to fill the capacity gap. Additionally, the re-routing of energy trade routes due to localized wars has led to a sharp increase in demand for super-large oil tankers and LNG carriers, as more oil from non-OPEC countries like the US and Brazil flows to Asia. China’s demand for oil, iron ore, and soybeans has also driven immediate demand for tankers and bulk carriers. The pressure from the IMO’s carbon intensity guidelines and the EU’s carbon emission trading scheme has pushed shipowners to seek compliant replacement options to avoid paying high carbon taxes for old vessels. As a result, more than 60% of orders in 2025 were for alternative fuel vessels like LNG, methanol, and ammonia-powered ships.Strict environmental regulations have accelerated the retirement of old, inefficient ships, creating a demand for new vessels to fill the gap. Ships delivered during the previous peak delivery period have started to reach the “aging” stage, and shipowners objectively need to replace old ships with new ones. An undeniable reality is that, regardless of the reason behind the new ship orders, most of them are directed to China. China’s shipbuilding industry has established a high level of efficiency and cost-effectiveness over the past decade, becoming its fundamental competitive advantage. With its technological breakthroughs in LNG carriers, large car carriers, and high-tech offshore wind installation vessels, China has broken South Korea’s monopoly, adding another layer of competitiveness to its shipbuilding sector.

As a result, when global shipowners place orders, if they only consider economic factors, China is the clear choice.In late August or early September 2025, the French shipping giant CMA CGM signed a contract with China State Shipbuilding Corporation’s Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Group Co., Ltd. to build 10 LNG dual-fuel ultra-large container ships, worth about $2.1 billion. These ships are scheduled for delivery between 2028 and 2029. According to industry norms, such high-value contracts are usually not awarded to a single shipyard, even if the shipbuilder is from one country, as the order is typically divided among two to three different shipyards. However, with China’s shipbuilding capacity continually improving, it is becoming increasingly common for such large orders to be awarded to a single shipyard, marking a partial break from the old norms.Trump’s strategy to suppress China’s shipbuilding industry, which involved both domestic legislation and efforts to rejuvenate Japan and South Korea’s traditional shipbuilding industries, has not achieved the expected results. While South Korea and Japan have benefited to some extent, both, like the US’s domestic shipbuilding industry, still cannot effectively compete with China in terms of order volume due to factors like production capacity, technology, and cost. Once an industry declines, reviving it is much harder than establishing a new one from scratch. Rome wasn’t built in a day, but it was eventually built. If Rome is already in decline, however, its rebuilding may never be completed.