The Eve of Solid-State Battery Breakthrough
The origins of solid-state batteries can be traced back to Michael Faraday’s discovery of solid electrolytes in the 19th century. However, constrained by technological bottlenecks, their development remained slow for over a century until the emergence of new solid electrolytes in the 1990s brought this technology back into focus. Entering the 21st century, propelled by the wave of new energy vehicles, solid-state batteries finally witnessed a surge in research and investment, with their transition from laboratory to mass production gradually accelerating.
Recently, this energy storage revolution has achieved multiple breakthrough developments. On September 2nd, Eve Energy’s solid-state battery research institute officially unveiled its Chengdu mass production base, where its “Longquan II” all-solid-state battery has successfully rolled off the production line. On the same day, Gotion High-tech announced the formal completion of its first all-solid-state pilot production line, achieving a yield rate of 90%. Additionally, Farasis Energy stated that it expects to complete its sulfide all-solid-state battery pilot line by the end of this year and deliver the first-generation 60Ah sulfide all-solid-state batteries to strategic partner customers.
If existing lithium-ion batteries (with liquid electrolytes) have successfully driven the electric vehicle revolution, solid-state batteries may just be turning the first page of a new chapter. Based on liquid content, solid-state batteries can be categorized into three types: semi-solid, quasi-solid, and all-solid, with liquid contents of 5-10wt%, 0-5wt%, and 0wt%, respectively. The most attention-grabbing is undoubtedly the all-solid-state battery, which can extend electric vehicle range to over 1,000 kilometers while completely eliminating the combustion and explosion risks associated with liquid batteries. China elevated all-solid-state battery development to the national level for the first time in 2020, and since then, the field has shown accelerated growth. According to industry predictions, all-solid-state batteries will achieve small-batch installation in vehicles by 2027 and enter large-scale mass production by 2030.
Currently, multiple companies have established clear mass production timelines for all-solid-state batteries. Farasis Energy stated that it will advance small-batch mass production and vehicle installation in 2026-2027, achieving large-scale mass production by 2030. Gotion High-tech announced it has officially commenced the design work for its first-generation all-solid-state battery 2GWh mass production line. Chery, in collaboration with the Chinese Academy of Sciences and CATL, has established a “Solid-State Battery Joint Laboratory,” focusing on breakthroughs in three core areas: cathode materials, electrolytes, and separators. It is expected that after mass production and vehicle installation in 2026, pure electric models will achieve a range exceeding 1,000 kilometers and charging times shortened to 10 minutes.
Despite rapid technological progress, cost remains the primary obstacle to the large-scale commercialization of solid-state batteries. Some analytical institutions estimate that the cost of solid-state batteries in 2026 will be around 5,700 RMB/kWh. This means that a pure electric vehicle equipped with a 100kWh (i.e., 100-degree) solid-state battery would have a battery cost alone approaching 600,000 RMB. If combined with the key three major components and electronic electrical architecture, the final mass-produced vehicle price could exceed one million RMB.
Sunwoda publicly stated plans to mass-produce all-solid-state batteries by 2026 and control the overall cost within 2 RMB/Wh (2,000 RMB/kWh). However, even if this target is achieved, the cost of a 100kWh solid-state battery would still reach around 200,000 RMB, resulting in a vehicle price easily exceeding 400,000 RMB.
The drivers behind the high cost of solid-state batteries include not only the high research and development costs of new materials but also significant differences in production processes compared to traditional liquid batteries. Particularly, additional steps such as dry electrode processing, solid electrolyte compounding, and isostatic pressing have increased manufacturing costs. Notably, this year has seen a surge in demand for solid-state battery production equipment: among major equipment suppliers, Lead Intelligent Technology secured new orders totaling 12.4 billion RMB in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of nearly 70%. Hymson Laser saw new orders of approximately 4.421 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 117.5%, with order backlogs exceeding 10 billion RMB by the end of June. As the saying goes, “The duck knows first when the river warms in spring,” indicating that equipment suppliers are clearly the first to sense the heat of solid-state battery industrialization.
In terms of materials, a Guotai Junan Securities research report pointed out that sulfide solid electrolytes, with their superior comprehensive performance, are expected to become the mainstream choice for all-solid-state batteries. Among them, lithium sulfide is the core raw material for sulfide solid electrolytes, boasting broad potential market space and attracting numerous companies to invest. The mainstream preparation routes for lithium sulfide can be divided into three categories: solid-phase, liquid-phase, and gas-phase methods. As the market demand for solid-state batteries gradually emerges, companies with forward-looking layouts in lithium sulfide are likely to benefit.
Echoing the cost structure of solid-state batteries, their application is also penetrating in gradients. Initially, all-solid-state batteries will be mainly applied in high-value-added fields such as eVTOL aircraft and humanoid robots, as these areas require extremely high energy density and safety but are relatively cost-insensitive. As production capacity expands and costs decrease, solid-state batteries will gradually penetrate the high-end electric vehicle market before finally entering the mass consumer market (for electric vehicles, generally considered to be priced below 300,000 RMB).
Eve Energy’s recently launched “Longquan II” all-solid-state battery is explicitly targeted at humanoid robots, low-altitude aircraft, and AI high-end equipment fields. These application scenarios will provide invaluable opportunities for the commercial validation of all-solid-state batteries. China International Capital Corporation (CICC) predicts that global solid-state battery shipments will reach 808GWh by 2030. Among these, all-solid-state batteries are expected to achieve technical finalization and small-scale mass production by 2027, with commercial mass production by 2030 and demand potentially exceeding 150GWh. By then, power, eVTOL, and consumer electronics will correspond to solid-state installation demands of 93GWh, 40GWh, and 23GWh, with penetration rates of 3%, 40%, and 15%, respectively.
The acceleration of solid-state battery commercialization naturally relies on policy support. In March of this year, the national level proposed establishing a standard system for all-solid-state batteries. The China Society of Automotive Engineers will hold a review meeting for 10 solid-state battery group standards, including “Mold Battery Assembly Methods for Solid-State Battery Material Evaluation,” and a kick-off meeting for 5 standard projects, including “Evaluation Methods for Hydrogen Sulfide Production in Sulfide All-Solid-State Batteries,” on September 10-11 in Beijing. These efforts will address safety assessment issues such as hydrogen sulfide gas generation when sulfide electrolytes encounter water, while also standardizing material evaluation and battery assembly methods, making industry development more orderly and efficient, and laying the foundation for industrialization.
From an investment perspective, solid-state batteries, with simultaneous technological breakthroughs and commercialization progress, are expected to become a long-term golden track. However, this technological revolution will not happen overnight; it is more like an industrial marathon requiring both patience and wisdom. Over the next three to five years, the industry may undergo a round of elimination: companies overly reliant on financing but lacking core technological breakthroughs may face clearance, while those achieving genuine breakthroughs in material systems, process equipment, and business models will gradually emerge. This means investors must not only focus on the technological progress of solid-state batteries but also accurately identify the true leaders in various sub-sectors.