Gold Not Only Lost to Silver, But Also to This

At the recent G20 summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, the Toyota Mirai (a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle) quietly navigated the venue, performing diplomatic tasks of transporting delegates. In this seemingly ordinary business collaboration, a small yet crucial detail stands out: in the proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells used in this model, platinum is an irreplaceable catalyst for accelerating hydrogen oxidation and redox reactions. Additionally, in PEM electrolyzers that produce “green hydrogen,” platinum also plays a vital role. Beyond the highly publicized gold and silver, platinum has emerged as a key player in the hydrogen revolution.Since the beginning of the year, the spot price of platinum has surged nearly 100%, rising from $900 per ounce at the start of the year to around $1800, trailing only silver among precious metals. As early as December 1, the price of spot silver touched $58 per ounce, with the year’s cumulative increase exceeding 100% (compared to gold’s rise of around 60%). Since then, silver has continued to hit new all-time highs. Platinum, meanwhile, has seen an accelerated increase, with six consecutive days of rising prices, reaching the highest levels since 2011, seemingly chasing silver’s performance.While silver prices have also stayed strong due to industrial demand, their recent increase has not been as dramatic as platinum’s. A key fundamental factor supporting platinum’s price rise is the projected supply deficit in the global platinum market. According to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), a supply gap of 26.4 to 30 tons is expected by 2025, marking the third consecutive year of a shortage. The supply shortage is primarily driven by the fact that about 70% of the world’s platinum production comes from South Africa, where the mining industry faces long-standing structural challenges such as unstable power supply, outdated infrastructure, and rising extraction costs due to increasing mining depths.

These factors severely constrain the ability to boost production. According to WPIC’s report, global platinum mine supply dropped 13% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025.Platinum mines require a long cycle, often over ten years, from exploration to production. The price slump over the past decade has significantly suppressed investment in new projects, resulting in extremely low supply elasticity. In addition to these rigid supply constraints, platinum’s unique industrial demand, especially in the hydrogen energy sector, is also an important variable in its long-term price outlook.Currently, the largest industrial demand for platinum still comes from the automotive sector, primarily as a catalyst for diesel vehicle exhaust purification. Although the global auto industry is transitioning to electric vehicles, the emissions upgrade needs of existing internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, particularly commercial vehicles, will still provide stable demand in the medium term.It is worth noting that on December 16, the European Commission announced a new proposal to amend the 2035 ban on sales of gasoline and diesel vehicles, relaxing the new carbon emission standards for vehicles. The original requirement, “From 2035, only zero-emission vehicles can be sold in the EU region, with a 100% reduction in CO2 emissions,” has been changed to “a 90% reduction in CO2 emissions.” If this policy is implemented, gasoline vehicles will have some breathing room, potentially generating more positive demand for platinum.In addition to fossil-fuel vehicles, platinum is also a core material in the hydrogen energy industry chain. Although the absolute sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (such as the Toyota Mirai) remain relatively insignificant, the absolute consumption of platinum is still low, but its growth potential is relatively clear.

A report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) points out that governments’ net-zero emission commitments are driving the hydrogen sector, particularly green hydrogen projects, to accelerate. China’s “14th Five-Year Plan” explicitly lists hydrogen energy alongside nuclear fusion energy as a forward-looking future industry, with hydrogen energy placed in the lead.This clarity of expectation regarding future energy structures has attracted the attention of long-term capital. Technologically, academic and industrial sectors in China, Japan, and Europe and the U.S. are working to reduce the platinum loading in fuel cells or find partial substitutes. For platinum, this is a double-edged sword. On one hand, reducing the amount used per unit could suppress demand for platinum; on the other hand, lower-cost alternatives could help accelerate the commercialization and popularization of hydrogen fuel cell technology, potentially expanding the overall application scale and driving total platinum demand.The current market pricing clearly reflects the optimistic outlook for industrial expansion. Many fundamental factors have been further amplified through financial market actions. Especially with gold prices at historic highs, some investors are beginning to search for relatively undervalued assets within the precious metals sector. The long-term price ratio between platinum and gold has historically been low, attracting capital flows seeking a rebound opportunity.At the same time, in recent years, financial investment tools, including platinum futures launched in China, have increased the liquidity and accessibility of platinum assets, facilitating investment from both institutions and individual investors. There’s no doubt that 2023 has been a year of collective surges in precious metals prices. However, while gold, silver, and platinum belong to the same precious metals family, their intrinsic logic is undergoing profound differentiation.

Gold can be considered the eternal “ultimate asset,” with its narrative centered around credit hedging and risk aversion. When people feel uneasy about fiat currencies or geopolitical tensions, gold often becomes the last refuge. However, its purely financial nature also means that when no new crisis catalysts emerge, its price tends to consolidate at high levels, as evidenced by gold’s recent performance. Silver, on the other hand, serves a dual purpose of being both a “precious” and a “metal.” Besides its safe-haven properties similar to gold, it has significant industrial demand, such as approximately 20 grams of silver being required for each solar panel. This enables silver to directly benefit from the global wave of green energy construction. Thus, silver’s rise is more the result of a confluence of risk aversion and strong industrial demand.Platinum’s story is more disruptive. In the past, its fate was deeply tied to traditional internal combustion engines, but its core narrative has now shifted to hydrogen energy—a sector widely regarded as the ultimate clean energy. In other words, platinum has leaped from being a supplementary material for traditional industries to becoming a core component of future energy infrastructure. Its identity has, to some extent, shifted to that of a “tech metal” and an “energy metal.”However, as platinum prices approach historical highs, analysts have recently made divergent predictions for platinum’s price in 2026, ranging from $1550-1775 per ounce to $2170-2300 per ounce. But from the perspective of the Toyota fuel cell fleet at the G20 summit, what is certain is that as hydrogen energy technology moves from the laboratory to more practical application scenarios, the journey of platinum’s value reassessment has already begun.