CATL Surges Ahead: Has the New Energy ‘King’ Returned?

At present, the hottest focus in the A-share market is none other than CATL. In the morning session on September 15, CATL’s A-shares surged more than 14% at one point, hitting a historic high and driving the broader new energy sector upward, with battery ETFs rising over 5% at peak. Behind this capital frenzy lies a convergence of multiple favorable factors, prompting market speculation on whether the new energy industry is entering a true turning point.By the close on the 15th, CATL’s A-shares had risen 9.1%, pushing its total market capitalization past RMB 1.6 trillion. Among the various positive developments, one particularly noteworthy factor was the morning release by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) of the “Guidelines for Payment Terms of Auto OEM Suppliers.” The guidelines standardize key processes such as order confirmation, delivery and acceptance, and payment and settlement.

The initiative stipulates that vehicle manufacturers must calculate payment terms from the date suppliers deliver goods and pass acceptance, with a maximum period of 60 calendar days. Additionally, the acceptance process should, in principle, be completed within three working days.A relevant official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) noted in response to reporters that delayed payments by OEMs increase operational pressure on suppliers, directly affecting enterprise investment and hindering industrial technological innovation and the construction of supply chain systems. The policy aims to foster a collaborative, win-win ecosystem between OEMs and component suppliers, promoting high-quality development in the automotive industry. Notably, 17 major OEMs have committed to ensuring that supplier payments do not exceed a 60-day period, demonstrating corporate responsibility and accountability. As key suppliers to OEMs, battery manufacturers stand out as among the biggest beneficiaries of this policy.

Meanwhile, the joint “Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Automotive Industry (2025–2026)” issued last weekend by MIIT and seven other departments projects that annual vehicle sales in 2025 will reach approximately 32.3 million units, with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales expected at around 15.5 million units. This implies that over the next 16 months, an average of 1.29 million NEVs will need to be sold per month—roughly one NEV for every two vehicles sold. Back-calculating from the 15.5 million target, power battery demand is expected to exceed 850 GWh, a net increase of about 140 GWh compared to 2024.Additionally, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) released the “Special Action Plan for Large-scale Construction of New Energy Storage (2025–2027)” three days ago, opening new opportunities for the energy storage sector. The plan outlines five key initiatives: expanding application scenarios for new energy storage, improving utilization efficiency, leading technological innovation and integration, strengthening standards, and accelerating market mechanism improvement. Its overall goal is to achieve a nationwide new energy storage installed capacity of 180 GW by 2027, driving approximately RMB 250 billion in direct investment, with lithium-ion battery storage remaining the dominant technology route.

Beyond the three major policy tailwinds, the fundamentals of the new energy sector continue to improve, particularly with the energy storage market experiencing explosive growth. According to data from Xunheng Research Institute, in August 2025, installed energy storage systems and EPC (including equipment) orders reached 25.8 GW and 69.4 GWh respectively, hitting record highs. Research reports from institutions such as CITIC Securities indicate that orders for energy storage batteries from some leading battery manufacturers are already nearly fully booked for 2026, reflecting strong industry expectations for future demand.Industry insiders note that under domestic electricity price reforms, price fluctuations have increased, widening the peak-to-valley price gap. This makes it easier for large-scale energy storage projects to profit by “buying low and selling high,” shortening investment payback periods and improving project economics. As a result, more investors are willing to invest in energy storage projects, increasing orders (and production schedules) for storage batteries and driving battery price increases.

Leading manufacturers like CATL, seeing this trend, have proactively increased inventory, further boosting upstream raw material demand, causing prices across the supply chain (lithium, cobalt, nickel, etc.) to rise. For example, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has rebounded 12% since August, reaching around RMB 78,000 per ton.In fact, whether in energy storage or power batteries, market competition is intensifying daily. The lithium carbonate price, which once fell from RMB 600,000 to below RMB 100,000, is a clear example. Morgan Stanley’s report on September 11 noted that CATL’s industry leadership has not only remained intact amid competition but has been further strengthened. The report highlighted that in the first half of 2025, CATL achieved significant market share growth in Europe’s electric vehicle battery market, while shares of smaller battery manufacturers remained “sluggish.” In the energy storage sector, CATL leverages its massive cost advantages and superior high-quality warranty terms to proactively lower market prices, squeezing competitors’ profits to near break-even, creating what the report calls “an asymmetric war.”

Regarding solid-state batteries, Morgan Stanley described them as “more hype than opportunity,” suggesting that commercialization depends on a research and development race grounded in mature material science and engineering capabilities. CATL is expected to continue leading this frontier market, with little chance of a disruptive “dark horse” competitor emerging. Currently announced prototype products will require extensive development over the next three years to commercialize, effectively representing “zero near-term revenue opportunity.”The report also pointed out that following a round of sector-wide stock gains, CATL’s A-shares remain the “cheapest in the industry.” Using 2026 projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, CATL trades at just 17.5x, while some peers are far higher. This relatively low valuation compared with its market leadership and growth prospects is particularly attractive to investors.

With the ongoing electrification of vehicles, the explosive growth of the energy storage market, and continuous policy support, CATL is poised to further solidify its global leadership through technological advantages and economies of scale. In the next cycle of lithium battery and broader new energy sector prosperity, CATL’s role as the industry leader will become even more pronounced.Looking back at industry history, from the “Ten Cities, Thousand Vehicles” pilot in 2010 to the production overcapacity in 2023, the three lithium battery cycles have all followed the trajectory of “policy—subsidy—EV growth.” Starting in 2024, energy storage has taken over, with large-scale domestic and international projects booming simultaneously. This cycle of prosperity relies no longer on subsidies but on global grid transformation, ushering lithium batteries into a “self-driven energy storage” super-long track. As long as production capacity does not surge uncontrollably, a return to industry winter seems unlikely.Behind CATL’s single-day stock surge, the “king’s return” of the new energy sector may only just be beginning.